The great International Eye has drifted elsewhere, but Kenya's political crisis is nowhere near over. Negotiations are at a deadlock. Opposition leader Raila Odinga will give a news conference in a couple of hours to announce the resumption of mass protests. That could mean more violence.
Commentators have been swift to denounce the media for comparing Kenya's chaos to the Rwanda genocide, and for obvious reasons. Even the most pessimistic estimates put the Kenyan death toll in the last two weeks at about 1,000, compared to estimates of 800,000 over three months for Rwanda.
But after speaking to a few human rights activists, I believe there are lessons to be learned. They suggest that Kenya could turn into Rwanda down the line unless the country's political leaders take specific steps to prevent that.
_ Justice: Everyone agrees that this election was rigged. Yet the government has simply gone ahead and appointed the new Cabinet. It is true that Kenya needs to keep calm, but the government's insistence that life get back to normal will only ensure that justified resentment and anger over the election continues to fester. The government has shown no willingness to get to the bottom of the election vote-rigging (naturally, because it was involved) but it must. If Kibaki had won fairly, there would not have been nearly the same magnitude of ethnic violence.
_ Peaceful protest: There is nothing wrong with Raila Odinga comparing his cause to Ukraine's Orange Revolution. Maybe this country needs to be completely shut down by strikes and mass demonstrations. But he must figure out a way to make sure that this does not lead to the reconstruction of roadblocks where Kalenjin pull Kikuyus from their cars, of more church burnings, of ethnic clashes. Raila is in trouble here because it seems that members of his own inner circle have been complicit in inciting their supporters to attack people who supported President Kibaki. They are mostly Kikuyu, of course, so the violence becomes ethnic even though it started as political.
_ Avoid the autocracy: Much of the violence in Kenya so far has been state sponsored. Police open fire on looters or peaceful demonstrators, or refuse to allow rallies to go ahead. So far in his second term, Kibaki has given every indication that his government will be more hardline, more power-hungry, less attuned to the voices of regular Kenyans than before. In short, he will be returning to the bad old days of Daniel arap Moi.
Opposition leaders face a choice. If they keep up their protests, they will come up against an unbending government. Given the ethnic dimension of the standoff, it seems unlikely that they will be able to avoid wider violence. Yet backing down now for the sake of calm and normalcy will only allow real, dangerous problems to linger _ and possibly to grow to Rwanda-sized proportions down the road.
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