How dangerous is Nairobi?

Got a comment in response to my last post saying that Nairobi is getting more dangerous and kidnappings are on the rise, and thus the U.N. ought not to declare Nairobi is actually a safer city. Is it true?

The primary evidence for the kidnapping claim seems to have come from a spate of stories last year (for a sampling, see this New York Times story and this Financial Times story from lat October, which terrified family and friends but were met with some puzzlement by lots of people who actually live here, and this story from France24). The stories mention several horrific crimes and then cite the police, security consultants and a security firm called KK Security as saying that kidnappings for ransom have spiked. 

Let's look at the data. The New York Times says Nairobi "seems to be in the swell of another crime wave" and that a "general feeling of foreboding seems to be spreading," while the FT, on the other hand, reports that "national crime levels have steadily dropped" though kidnappings are up.

First, I would be curious to know how reliable those statistics, or any statistics produce by the Kenyan police or security consultants, really are. Whatever brief media furor there was over the kidnapping trend in mid-2009 has now vanished; an outbreak of kidnappings in diplomatic circles has not occurred. 

Second, kidnappings are a touchy subject in Kenya. As numerous human rights groups (and one U.N. rapporteur) have noted, the group chiefly responsible for kidnappings in Kenya is the police force itself. And just as U.N. staff have a financial interest in keeping Nairobi a "Level C" duty station and not working themselves out of a job, security consultants and security firms like KK have an interest in making it look like crime rates are high.

How much Nairobi's crime is a vicious cycle of sorts? Security firms in Kenya tend to make piles of money. One reason they do so is that they pay their staff miserable wages, offer them no job security, and force them to work long hours (I know one security company employee who makes $65 a month, works 12-hour days, and has not had a day off in nine months). 

The general rule of thumb in Kenya is that crimes such as home invasions and kidnappings are inside jobs. At some point you have to wonder how much the U.N. and the diplomatic corps make themselves targets by living wealthy lifestyles, driving fancy cars and treating their Kenyan staff deplorably in a land where resentment toward rich politicians and expatriates is high. Again, the system perpetuates itself.

Comments

[Anonymous]

You are totally right Nick, especially on the low wages issues for askaris and housekeepers

Just note that kidnapping is on the rise; it's the new thing.

But you can not say that Nairobi is a safe city (e.g. can't walk at night).

About the UN reclassification issue, I think that it was not justified (crime rate is same than before, water and power rationing can happen at any time, corruption very high, more and more armed in Nairobi, and 2012 election to come).

[K]

Overall, I completely agree with your perspective.

As far as the trend, it's been year-and-a-half since I lived in Nairobi, but I hear from others that there does seem to be, on balance, a tenser atmosphere on crime (all this is subjective, but where would you really get trustworthy statistics). This make sense with the worsening of the economy, especially food availability and prices. It seems to me that Nairobi is fairly safe if you are very well off and take lots of precautions and avoid the attentions of the police and fairly dangerous for most of the non-elite locals. And in between if you are well off but avoid being cloistered. More dangerous than Kampala or Hargeisa to be out at night (and it seemed to me Khartoum), but maybe better than Addis.

As to the five categories, with money at stake, it all looks pretty arbitrary. From an employment standpoint, it would seem to me that you could pay less to attract the same people to Nairobi than to most of the other cities, actual cost-of-living aside.

[Mary Dent]

I have met business people from Kenya who say
Johannesburg has more crime than Nairobi ?

I think most large cities in Africa probably have
a problem with crime.

[runescape money]

我们的命运提供的不绝望的世界杯，但是机会的圣杯。因此，让我们抓住它，不要害怕，但在欢喜。

[Jin]

I visited Nairobi as a tourist during Dec-Jan 2010 with my wife. We used public transport and went out in the city too. I felt it to be a good place, and people seems to be kind and helping.