South Sudanese independence

There are many conflicting reports out there about whether or not South Sudan will vote for independence from the north when a referendum on the issue is held next year. Many reports have focused on the apparent fact that South Sudan is re-arming ahead of a new war with the north should the independence bid fail.

I had coffee the other day with a South Sudanese official who advises the government. His assessment of the planned referendum: things are going to be disastrous either way.

According to this official (who is from the Nuer ethnic group), a large number of South Sudanese _ basically everyone but the Dinka _ want South Sudan to remain joined with the rest of Sudan. They believe that the government of South Sudan, which is comprised largely of people from the Dinka ethnic group, have done little to make the region better (it has almost no infrastructure to speak of). Instead, government officials have lined their own pockets. Corruption is rampant.

Much discussion has circulated recently that South Sudan will go back to war with the north if the referendum fails. This official thinks that's unlikely. Instead, he believes that South Sudan's ethnic groups will go to war against each other _ a South Sudanese civil war _ should the referendum succeed.

Comments

[peter heinlein]

that's exactly what moammar gadhafi said at a news conference last night on the sidelines of the AU summit. his analysis was quite similar to what you're haring

[runescape gold]

The unexamined life is not worth living.

[runescape money]

What makes life dreary is the want of motive.

[Andrea Bohnstedt]

Is that really an either-or? During the previous conflict with the north, the southerners have often fought amongst themselves (also, obviously, instigated by the north who have exploited southern divisions).